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The ASTER price is more than 8% today and about 12% in the past week. The coin was finally able to break out of a falling wedge, which is generally considered a bullish pattern.
But even with today’s sharp jump, some warning signs are emerging. Momentum divergences and a long and heavy push appear on the liquidation chart showing that the next move may not be a direct continuation. The question now is whether ASTER can extend the separation or be blocked by an early withdrawal.
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Momentum shows strength, but differences appear
The first concern comes from the Relative Strength Index (RSI). RSI measures buying pressure and indicates whether the movement has fundamental strength. Between November 2 and November 16, the ASTER price made a lower high while the RSI made a higher high. This is a hidden bearish bias. It seems that when the buying pressure increases, the price fails to keep up. Usually give notice of withdrawal.
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The Money Flow Index (MFI), which tracks buy-and-dip by combining price and volume, shows the same problem. Between November 11 and November 16, the price formed a higher low, but the MFI formed a lower low. This means that the buying of the dip is weakened.
All deviations refer to the same message. Buyers pay ASTER quite high To break the wedge, but they did not push hard enough to confirm an uptrend. Closing the day candle above $1.28 is the only level that removes both anomalies and confirms the real strength.
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Long and heavy positions increase downside risk
The biggest risk comes from leverage. On the ASTER-USDT settlement chart for Binance, the long settlement leverage is $25.86 million. The short liquidation leverage is only $6.06 million.
These parameters mean that long trades are more than four times larger than short trades. This arrangement means that the movement is based on aggressive long positions. If the price of ASTER falls even slightly, these long positions are at risk. When there are long clearances, the price usually falls faster because the forced selling accelerates the movement.
This is directly related to the differences. If the importance weakens and the price pulls, the price of the Aster could experience a deeper slide because the long side is overloaded. This is the primary risk hidden under today’s conflict.
The ASTER price needs $1.28 to confirm the strength
Show a price chart ASTER The same tension. ASTER broke the fall cone today. But the breakout becomes reliable only above $1.28. This is the key level where the structure turns from an unstable breakout to a confirmed trend change.
If the spreads are found and the pullback begins, the first level ASTER must defend is $1.09. Holding that level keeps the decline limited to a minor correction.
Losing $1.09 paves the way towards $0.99, which is also where most of the long liquidation clusters are located on the Binance map. A move into that area will likely accelerate the decline due to strong leverage on the long side.
If ASTER closes above $1.28 instead, the spread is considered null and the path towards $1.59 opens. This is the next major level that the chart indicates.
