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Bitcoin, gold and silver remain in the spotlight this week ahead of Thursday’s US CPI and the expected increase in interest rates by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
As the macro narrative approaches, analysts point to impending volatility for BTC, XAU and XAG prices.
Price predictions for Bitcoin, gold and silver ahead of the big macro headlines
index US consumer prices on Thursday High interest rate The Bank of Japan’s near-certainty on Friday puts the price of Bitcoin and safe haven commodities like gold and silver in a state of volatility. In this context, the predictions for Bitcoin, XAU and XAG this week are as follows.
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The high relief is weakening amid Bitcoin’s bearish price structure
Bitcoin’s daily chart features a countertrend recovery rather than a confirmed bullish reversal. The price has broken out of an ascending channel, suggesting that the relief rally may be weakening after the sharp decline from the $126,000 peak.
While the short-term structure has improved, Bitcoin remains below key moving averages, including the 50-day and 100-day EMAs at $95,601 and $101,022, respectively. These levels follow the price of Bitcoin continuously upwards, forming a dynamic resistance.
The RSI is recovering from oversold territory, currently holding near the mid-40s, and a pending buy signal indicates improving short-term momentum. This buy signal will be executed once the purple band (RSI) crosses above the signal line (yellow band).
Meanwhile, the MACD line remains above the signal line, indicating that bullish momentum is still technically in control. However, sellers continue to show strength, since this indicator is in negative territory.
Since the bars of the histogram shrink and fade from their green color, this only indicates a weak buying pressure, not that the bulls have given up. Note that the histograms remain in the positive region.
Analysis of the bullish volume profile (green horizontal bars) reveals a significant demand for the top with buyers on the late dip waiting to react to Bitcoin above the psychological level of $90,000.
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For Bitcoin to turn into a bullish continuation phase, it must break above the lower boundary of the ascending channel and regain the $100,000 level. Traders who want to take advantage of this upside potential should consider waiting for the candle to close above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $98,018.
Until then, the market prefers to trade a range-bound recovery, with an increased risk of rejection at resistance levels. The broader trend remains cautious, but the first signs of stabilization are emerging.
The gold price growth channel is approaching the upper limit with the appearance of sell signals
Like BitcoinGold’s 4-hour chart highlights a well-defined bullish channel, with the price currently heading towards the XAU all-time high of $4,381.
Structurally, the trend remains, as gold continues to post higher highs and higher lows while respecting channel support throughout November and December.
However, the momentum is starting to diverge. The RSI has returned from highs, hovering around the mid-upper 60s, and a clear pending sell signal indicates a decline in bullish momentum. A sell signal will be executed once the relative signal indicator crosses below the signal line.
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This does not mean a trend reversal, but rather an increased possibility of a pullback towards the channel support. Such a move would give late XAU traders a discounted entry into the gold trade.
Major Fibonacci retracement levels reinforce this view. A corrective move towards $4,265 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level) or $4,193 (38.2% Fibonacci spray) remains quite flat while the trend continues.
A deeper correction to $4,134 will only become worrisome if it is accompanied by a channel break, with the bullish hypothesis nullified once the price closes and closes below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Unless the price of gold breaks decisively and closes below $4,076 during the four-hour period, the current configuration favors a short-term consolidation or a bearish corrective movement.
The medium-term bias remains constructive, but momentum traders must be careful when chasing peaks at this point.
The strength of the price of silver makes the risk of overextension
The daily chart for silver is showing a strong uptrend, as… The price of XAG is rising towards the resistance zone between $64-65. The broader trend structure remains decidedly bullish, supported by a rise in the median Bollinger band line and a sustained close above key moving averages.
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The price of silver has met higher and lower since the middle of the year, confirming the continuation of the strong trend.
However, the momentum indicators indicate a risk of near exhaustion. An RSI near 74 indicates overbought conditions, which are historically associated with pullbacks or short-term consolidation rather than immediate trend reversals.
Meanwhile, the Great Oscillator (AO) remains positive and expanding, indicating that bullish momentum remains below the surface.
Key bearish levels to watch are at $56.90, with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. A shallow correction to this area is likely to be constructive, allowing momentum to reset while maintaining the broader uptrend.
However, a discovery of the indicator below $52.10 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) constitutes an upward momentum. The bullish outlook will be invalidated only if the price falls below $44.56, establishing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
On the positive side, a clean daily close above $65 may open the door to psychological extension levels beyond current expectations.
Overall, silver is still in a strong bullish system, but traders should expect volatility and the possibility of a mean retracement before the next sustained rise. Risk management becomes crucial at these high levels, especially for late entry.
