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Several key economic data in the United States between December 15 and 19, 2025 put Bitcoin at a crucial point. Analysts are divided between fears of a major correction and hopes that the Federal Reserve’s policy will mitigate the potential impacts.
The Bank of Japan data adds to the mix, as Bitcoin braces for a turbulent week with markets indicating a 98% probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates to 75 basis points on December 19. This move often results in declines of 20-30%.
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US crypto traders should be watching this week
with The price of Bitcoin stabilizes near the psychological level of $90,000Macroeconomic signals are expected to play an important role in shaping the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook and short-term price direction this week.
The next economic data from the United States could impact the markets in the third week of December.
Non-Farm Payments (NFP) – Tuesday, December 16, 8:30 am EST
The November Nonfarm Payrolls report is the first comprehensive snapshot of US business conditions since September. It is also a key input in the price of the markets the path of the policy of the Fed until 2026.
Consensus forecasts point to a sharp slowdown in job creation, with just 50,000 jobs expected, down from 119,000 in October, while the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% from 4.4%.
Recent private payrolls data has already tipped sentiment toward a softer outcome. The latest ADP report showed a surprise contraction of 32,000 jobs, bolstering expectations that… Labor market momentum is declining faster than previously thought.
Traders increasingly portray NFP as a crucial catalyst, especially with Bitcoin held in a tight range near $90,000.
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A stronger outlook of the expert could return an outlook of the Federal Reserve, which could pressure Bitcoin towards the support area of $85,000. On the contrary, a weak report, especially if it is below 40,000 to 50,000, is likely to strengthen the emotional narratives, opening the door for a recovery towards $95,000 or more as the hope of liquidity come back
In general, the sentiment remains cautious, with many highlighting the risk of strong movements in the liquidity gap.
Initial Jobless Claims – Thursday, December 18, at 8:30 am EST
Initial weekly jobless claims are yet another US economic data point to watch this week. This point provides a more direct reading of labor market pressures. Shows the number of US citizens who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time in the previous week.
Orders for the week ending December 13 are expected to reach 223,000 down from 236,000 the previous weekwhich represents a sharp jump from 192,000.
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This recent growth has been widely interpreted as a sign of a crack appearing in the labor market, That reinforced expectations of a rate cut It provided a tailwind for Bitcoin, even as Bitcoin briefly fell below $90,000 before rebounding.
Traders largely saw the growing claims as support for cryptocurrencies, linking deteriorating business conditions to a greater likelihood of Fed easing.
For Thursday’s release, a break above 230,000 will likely reinforce the positive narrative and growing support for Bitcoin (BTC). However, a stronger than expected number below 220,000 may temper cut rate bets and trigger a pullback towards the $88,000 area.
Many traders view the data as neutral to bullish in the current macro environment, but warn of price volatility if markets revert to “sell the news” behavior.
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November CPI – Thursday, December 18, 8:30 AM EST
Perhaps the most important economic data of the United States this week The consumer price index (CPI). CPI report delayed for November, which was delayed due to… The US government shut down for 46 daysis undoubtedly considered the most influential release of the week.
Headline inflation is expected to increase slightly to 3.1% year-on-year (y/y) from 3.0%, while the core CPI is expected to remain stable at 3.0%.
while Inflation remains well above the Fed’s 2% target.Any sign of a slowdown may boost expectations for interest rate cuts before March.
Feeling towards
With US inflation data coinciding with broader global central bank developments, including… Possibility of increasing interest rates by the Bank of JapanTraders widely view the CPI as the ultimate test of liquidity.
Combined with action data, it can be determined if Bitcoin breaks higher or extends its consolidation near $90,000.
