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Although Bitcoin Treasury Strategy (MSTR) maintains its position in the Nasdaq 100, concerns about the sustainability of its business model are growing, as new analyzes suggest that 2028 will be the crucial year that will determine the survival of the company.
The company now has a position in Bitcoin large enough to influence the broader market. Their possessions far exceed the size of a typical whale.
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Tiger Research: “2028 is the real test”
Blockchain research company Tiger Research has identified 2028 as a risk point key to their analysis The financial structure of the strategy.
The report highlights a radical change in the strategy approach to raising capital. Until 2023, the company relied on cash reserves and small convertible notes, keeping its holdings in the low range of 100,000 BTC. Since 2024, the Strategy has significantly increased leverage through the integration of preferred shares, ATM programs, and senior conversion offers. This created a feedback loop as rising Bitcoin prices allowed for larger purchases.
The problem: The call options on these convertible bonds expire in 2028, creating a redemption pressure of about $6.4 billion. Investors can request early repayment, and the company cannot refuse.
No cash flow, no safety net
Tiger Research points to a fundamental weakness: The strategy used almost all of the capital raised To buy Bitcoin Rather than productive assets that generate cash flow.
“If the money had been allocated to productive assets, the company would have had a natural source of repayment,” the report said. “Instead, the focus on Bitcoin accumulation leaves little liquidity available for redemption.”
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If the refinancing options are blocked in 2028, the strategist must sell about 71,000 bitcoins at $90,000. This is equivalent to 20-30% of the daily trading volume, which could lead to a downward spiral of the market.
High failure threshold
The strategy’s fixed failure threshold is $23,000 by 2025, which requires a 73% price decline. However, this level gradually increased from $12,000 in 2023 to $18,000 in 2024, as debt growth outpaced the accumulation of Bitcoin.
“The structural risks of the strategy seem low under normal circumstances, but they become very concentrated in 2028,” warned the magazine Tiger Research. “If the refinancing fails, pressure selling significant enough to impact the entire Bitcoin market could emerge.”
The report noted that new digital treasury companies face greater risks, as they lack the multi-layered security mechanisms built to survive the 2022 recession.
Nasdaq 100 keeps consumer prices amid doubts
At the same time, the strategy avoided delisting from the Nasdaq 100 in its regular rebalancing For the index that was announced at the end of last week. However, global index provider MSCI will review Strategic’s listing in January, with some market observers seeing Bitcoin’s buy-and-hold model more like an investment fund than a technology company.
The strategy started the institutional model of the Bitcoin treasury in 2020, generating dozens of copies in the world markets. However, as the volatility of Bitcoin ripples through share prices – down 47% in three months – questions are growing about whether this leveraged bet can support its upcoming debt obligations.
