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The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) opens its December 2025 session today, with a decision expected tomorrow, December 10, at 2:00 PM EST.
Investors and traders are watching closely to see if the central bank continues its easing cycle or surprises markets by keeping the rate steady. As the final policy announcement of the year, this result carries significant weight for cryptocurrency markets.
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Rate cut scenario: What happens if the Fed delivers a 25 basis point cut In December
In the announcement, market expectations are leaning heavily towards a rate cut, with a move of 25 basis points expected to be the most likely outcome. CME FedWatch data shows traders favor an 89.4% chance of a quarter-point cut at the December 10 meeting.
By contrast, only about 10.6% of market participants believe the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at the current range of 3.75%-4.00%.
If the Fed moves forward with a bond cut, it will be the third in a row this year, after the adjustments made in September and October. This will lower the interest rate to 3.50%-3.75%.
The September downgrade led to a temporary increase in the cryptocurrency market, as … Bitcoin and Ethereum posted gains. Meanwhile, the US dollar fell to its weakest level since the beginning of 2022.
However, the broader market decline has eased From the effect of the October reduction. In December, volatility remains high, with strong swings in both directions.
However, many analysts argue that another cut at this point may be in sight He is “optimistic” about cryptocurrencies.
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“If you think this is not bullish for Bitcoin and risk assets, don’t pay attention. Get ready for volatility. Get ready for green candles.” He said Analyst.
For cryptocurrencies, this standard adjustment is considered moderately optimistic, as it increases liquidity and encourages investment in risky assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. However, CryptoRover explained that the markets have already adjusted to this result, so the announcement itself is unlikely to spark a major reaction.
According to analysts, the real catalyst for market movement will be Powell’s press conference, and not the interest rate itself.
“Bank of America expects Powell to hint at “reserve management purchases”, i.e. new injections of liquidity to stabilize the funding pressures of small banks. This will help to normalize SOFR and support liquidity in the markets. If Powell looks conservative and says that inflation has started to cool down, that rates have not changed direction, and that workers will pull back, but he expects that the markets they expected more, if they expected more, if they expected markets like the recent FOMC meeting, Bitcoin and alts will deflate. .
Meanwhile, some investors expect a further cut Sharpness by 50 basis points.
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This would be a strong political signal, leading to a rapid expansion of liquidity and increased dollar weakness. Although the probability of this scenario is low, it is likely It has a stronger positive impact on cryptocurrency markets.
No Rate Cut Scenario: Why a Fed Hold Can Impact Cryptocurrency Sentiment
Although few analysts expected it, the possibility of the Fed maintaining interest rates cannot be ruled out. The price decision comes in light of turmoil in economic indicators. stop Government stop About the release of key data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This shortfall has left Fed officials working with limited visibility.
“What do you do if you drive in fog? He said Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said in October: “You’ve slowed down.”
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the reserve The Fed itself remains divided. Powell noted that policymakers face pressure from both sides of the central bank’s mandate. later The latest interest ratethe president dashed hopes of further easing in December.
“There were many different opinions on how to proceed in December. Another cut in the policy rate in the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion, far from it,” he said.
If this happens, the cryptocurrency markets may react negatively in the short term. The stabilization will temporarily affect sentiment and delay any upward momentum that the downgrade may spark.
Despite the risks, long-term trends can also benefit the cryptocurrency markets. Reports indicate that the Federal Reserve intends to buy $45 billion in Treasury bonds per month from January 2026. This policy can enhance liquidity in the financial system and stimulate investment in risk assets.
“This will inject massive liquidity into the markets. This means only one thing: quantitative easing will return. But this time they won’t call it QE, “, he said Lark Davis.
Whether the Fed announces an expected 25 basis point cut, surprises with a bigger cut, or keeps interest rates tighter, its decision will likely cause significant volatility in cryptocurrency markets. The subsequent press conference and forward guidance from President Powell will play a key role as traders focus on future policy prospects.
