Standard Chartered Bank has sounded the alarm: a large buyer of Bitcoin has disappeared

Standard Chartered has cut its long-term forecast for Bitcoin (BTC) prices, warning that a key pillar of recent demand, corporate buying of Bitcoin, is likely to exit.

Now I believe that future gains in Bitcoin will be driven by one source: the inflow of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), a change that could slow down the pace of the rally in the coming years.

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Bitcoin Decline ‘Painful But Normal’

Standard Chartered’s head of digital asset research, Jeff Kendrick, said in a new note that the bank will restore a timeline for Bitcoin to reach $500,000 and is… Lowering year-end price targets For the period from 2026 to 2029.

“While the recent decline in Bitcoin’s price has been rapid, we believe it is within expected limits,” Kendrick said. “However, it is unlikely that more Bitcoin will be bought by companies, since the valuations no longer support it. This leaves the purchase of ETFs, which may be slower than previously expected, to drive price gains from here. We are lowering our year-end price forecasts for 2026-29 and pushing our forecast of $500,000 in the winter.

Recent price movements Bitcoin Disturbing investors, but Standard Chartered sees the sell-off as in line with historical patterns rather than indicating a structural decline.

Kendrick noted that Bitcoin has fallen about 36% since… Its highest level was on October 6. It is a decline that is comparable to other declines seen by the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States.

“Recent movements in the price of Bitcoin (BTC) have been challenging, but the decline, while rapid, is within normal expectations,” added Kendrick, noting that similar declines have occurred in the past two years.

The simultaneous timing of the spike raised renewed fears of… Cryptocurrency winterBitcoin reached the top about 18 months later in mid-April 2024, a pattern seen in previous cycles.

“The synchronous timing of the recent losses, with us hitting the high on October 6 18 months after Bitcoin’s April 2024 halving, fueled the narrative of a crypto winter,” said Kendrick.

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However, Standard Chartered rejects the idea That traditional paid course The halving process still dominates On the behavior of the price of Bitcoin.

“We do not share the opinion that the halving cycle is still valid. Rather, we believe that long-term buyers of ETFs are more important factors in determining the price,” he said.

Corporate buying of Bitcoin is losing momentum

Standard Chartered noted that the most worrying signal is the apparent end of the backlog Bitcoin Aggression by treasury companies for listed digital assets (DAT).

Kendrick explained that valuations no longer justify further expansion by these companies, which have played an increasing role in driving demand in the past year.

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“Despite this, the price activity forced us to reset our Bitcoin price forecasts,” he noted. “In particular, we believe that the acquisition of Bitcoin digital assets (DAT) by treasury firms has likely ended, as valuations, as measured by mNAVs, the common valuation metric for these firms, do not support further expansion.

While the bank does not expect widespread selling by these companies, it also does not expect them to support prices in the future.

“We expect a consolidation rather than an outright sale, but buying DAT probably won’t provide further support,” Kendrick said.

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ETF flows will be a major support

As corporate purchases of Bitcoin fade, Kendrick believes the next stage in Bitcoin’s price trajectory largely depends on… ETFs.

“As a result, we believe that the future increase in Bitcoin prices will be driven by only one basis, which is the purchase of ETFs,” he emphasized.

The change prompted Standard Chartered to postpone its more optimistic forecast.

“We have therefore reduced our year-end price forecasts for the period from 2026 to 2029 and expect Bitcoin to reach our long-term forecast of $500,000 only in 2030 (vs. 2028 before),” explains Kendrick.

However, the bank maintains its long-term optimism, but on a longer timeline.

“We continue to believe that this goal is achievable, as the portfolio optimization between Bitcoin and gold continues to show that global portfolios are submitted in Bitcoin. Access to investment and decision making by investment committees takes time, but we expect that they will lead to significant gains in Bitcoin in the end,” he noted.