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The price of Ethereum has fallen by 18.5% in the past 30 days and about 5.2% this week. It’s holding up a little better than Bitcoin on the weekly chart, but it’s not close to recovering. A signal on the chain shows that most traders almost no longer have a reason to take profits.
Normal positions try to form a bottom. However, if the profit pressures have already subsided, the obvious question is why the price of Ethereum still refuses to recover.
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Decrease in profit that takes incentives, but not enough to confirm a fund
Net unrealized gains and losses (NUPL) fell to 0.23, the lowest reading since July 1. NUPL tracks investment psychology by measuring the amount of unrealized gain or loss in the market.
The stages change as surrender, where most portfolios hold losses, and belief or denial, where confidence grows.
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The last time NUPL fell even lower was on June 22, when it reached 0.17. This move came before Ethereum rebounded 106.3%, helping NUPL move from surrender to belief and denial.
Today’s reading is above that level, which means… Ethereum has room to decline More if the market weakens.
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A lower NUPL reading corresponds to conditions that existed before the previous major inversion. Although the incentives to take profits are now minimal, the bottom signal is not sufficiently combined.
Liquidation pressure explains why price does not respond to NUPL
The derivatives market provides the most obvious reason for Ethereum Frequency. In the ETH-USDT settlement chart on Gate, short exposure is heavy at $2.36 billion, and long exposure is still heavy at $1.05 billion.
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This imbalance keeps the pressure on both sides. The largest long liquidation pool extends to around $3,050. Ethereum is trading near this level, which means that even a slight drop could trigger forced selling by long traders.
The liquidation of long positions can easily overshadow the positive impact of a decrease in NUPL. Even if short positions are overexposed, the remaining long leverage is large enough to maintain market volatility.
This shows the relationship between the two metrics: Ethereum cannot use a profitable bottom configuration as long as this long liquidation wall remains stable.
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The Ethereum price chart is in line with the same danger zone
confirm Ethereum price chart Same story. Ethereum is still trading in a bearish channel, and the $3,053 area remains the most important support. This is the specific area where the highest filter pool is located. If the price loses $3,053, the chances of a deeper decline increase dramatically.
This type of decline is consistent with the path in which NUPL could slide towards the June low of 0.17, which is consistent with the setup that preceded the last major rally.
There is an upward trajectory, but it needs further confirmation. Ethereum must be restored $3,653 To show true strength, it is still more than 14% above current levels. From here, crossing $3,795 will flip the structure from bearish to neutral.
This move also tests the upper border of the channel, which has only two clean touches and is not strong resistance. If NUPL stabilizes, short positions begin to dissolve, and the price of Ethereum exceeds these levels, a sudden recovery becomes possible. Until these conditions meet, ETH remains trapped between a declining profit target and a stubborn liquidation charge.
