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HBAR fell almost 11% in the past week, and finally broke below the neckline yesterday, completing the head and shoulders pattern we predicted on November 13th. Despite the drop, the last 24 hours have remained surprisingly stable.
While the structure still points to lower levels, early signs suggest that traders betting on a deeper decline may fall into a bearish trap instead. Here’s why.
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The HBAR flux motion shows a sudden change in behavior after the decay. On November 14, HBAR recorded a net inflow of -4.03 million, meaning more tokens left the exchanges as buyers piled up.
today, After confirming the breakdown of the modelThe flow returned to + 420,790 HBAR.
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This equates to a 110% change from negative to positive net flow – a clear sign that sellers have entered aggressively after the pattern is broken.
The derivatives market shows a stronger change. In the Bitget liquidation chart, the short exposure is $16.71 million, while the long exposure is $6.09 million. This means that short positions now control 73% of all leveraged positions – about 2.7 times more than long positions.
This type of crowded positions often feeds the conditions for a bearish trap risk, where the price temporarily reverses higher and forces shorts to close their positions at a loss.
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A price break has occurred HBARYes – but this concentration makes it dangerous to assume that the movement will continue without stopping.
One step can trigger a refund in the HBAR price, closing the liquidation for short trades
The price chart contains the main reason for the possibility of a bearish trap. while HBAR breaks below the neck lineHowever, the next moment was weak. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) – a gauge that measures price momentum to see if an asset is oversold or overbought – shows a remarkable pattern.
Between October 17 and November 14, the price made a lower low, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) formed a higher low. This is a bullish RSI divergence, and often appears before a short-term reversal attempt.
If the divergence is achieved, the first move is to move back above $0.160, which is exactly where the neckline is located. A retracement of this level puts a large block of short positions at risk.
The liquidation chart shows that the sell gets into a tight whenever the price rises above this area.
A move above $0.180 confirms that the trap is indeed complete and induces significant short portfolio liquidation, That gives HBAR room for a strong recovery. However, the trap only works if buyers hold key support levels.
If HBAR falls below $0.155, the divergence will weaken and the downtrend will take control. In this case, the projection of the head and shoulders remains valid, opening the way to the previous target of the meeting near $0.113.
