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January has been volatile so far for Bitcoin (BTC), as the asset faces renewed headwinds amid rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and the European Union following President Trump’s recent tariff announcements.
In the last 24 hours, the largest cryptocurrency fell by almost 2.5% to $92,663. Meanwhile, analysts indicate major signs of an emerging bear market in 2026.
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1. Cuomo’s bearish shift appears on the Bitcoin chart
In a recent post on Bitcoin weekly chart. For context, a Kumo convolution is a formation that occurs when two major extensions of an Ichimoku cloud (Sinkou Span A and Senkou Span B) intersect, causing a reversal in the direction of the future cloud.
Depending on the direction of the cross, this may indicate a possible transition from bullish to bullish conditions Down Or from falling to rising. In the case of Bitcoin, the actual change is the negative slope.
Looking at previous market cycles, the Titan of Crypto noted that similar weekly Kumo turns preceded notable corrective phases, with Bitcoin eventually hitting the mark. The lows range between 67% to 70%.
“Historically, when the weekly Cuomo Index turns bearish, Bitcoin enters a phase of the bear market. This does not mean an immediate decline. This only means that the general structure of the market and the dynamics of the trend have changed. This is the context, not a prediction. Based on the last three cycles,” read the post.
2. Bitcoin is facing difficulties under the main barriers
Additionally, Bitcoin is currently trading below its 365-day moving average, which is near $101,000. This barrier was key during the bear market of 2022, when it stopped the high recovery.
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Coin Bureau’s analysis shows that currently, Bitcoin’s position below this intermediate average indicates that the market is still in bearish conditions.
support Technical analysis In addition using a Gaussian channel on a five-day chart these concerns. Cryptocurrency analyst Raven noted that Bitcoin has lost the intermediate level of the channel.
The publication added that the loss and failure to successfully reproduce this level constituted a historical principle More aggressive phase From bear markets.
“I think we are definitely going towards the $103,000 area to retest, or maybe a little higher to look for liquidity. If we can establish and maintain a support above the average, I will tell you. Until then, everything should be considered a dead jump,” added the analyst.
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3. Historical decline patterns indicate further decline
Bitcoin price history shows a recurring pattern of… Abrupt decline after the peak of the cycle. After peaking in 2013, Bitcoin fell by 75.9%, followed by a decline of 81.2% after the 2017 high and a decline of almost 74% after the 2021 peak.
However, in the current session, the pullback has been much smaller, with losses of just over 30%, which is a relatively small correction compared to historical standards. This suggests that the decline may be in its early stages, with further declines likely as the cycle progresses.
4. Market cycle indicators indicate that the bearish phase in Bitcoin is still developing
While the historical lows focus on the behavior of the price after the peaks of the market, the indicators of the broader cycle help to assess what the current conditions are consistent.
The Bear-Bear Market Cycle Index, which tracks the phases of the broader market, shows that bearish conditions began in October 2025. However, it has not yet entered a phase of severe decline.
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“By this metric, Bitcoin is in a bear market zone, and in every previous cycle it has extended into the dark blue zone, which indicates that lower levels are still likely. But yes, go ahead, ask higher! Eventually, there must be someone who comes out of liquidity,” he said. One of the analysts.
5. Exchange flows reveal the distribution of the two main access points
Finally, data on the chain shows an increase in Bitcoin flows to exchanges. These flows are dominated by medium to large Bitcoin holders, especially in the 10-100 BTC and 100-1000 BTC range.
Bitcoin transfers to exchanges tend to increase To indicate increased distribution activity Instead of long-term accumulation, market participants move assets in preparation for a potential sale.
“Their activity tends to be more meaningful information than fragmented sales flows, because it reflects strategic decisions rather than noise. From the perspective of the large macro chain, the combination of higher exchange flows and distribution from larger pools suggests that the market is entering a more fragile phase.” He indicated Analyst.
In general, Bitcoin shows many signs of a bear market in technical, historical and chain indicators. However, it is still uncertain whether it will follow historical bearish patterns or surprise the market with renewed vigor.
