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The cryptocurrency market has taken a big hit in the past month. Total market capitalization fell from $4.27 trillion on October 6 to $2.98 trillion on November 19, a drop of nearly 30%. The recovery to $3.12 trillion did not change the debate – traders remain divided.
A deeper bear market is brewing, one group says. The other says the correction actually looks like a late-stage weakness. This article focuses on the second group. Many readings clearly indicate now that the cryptocurrency bull market may start faster than expected.
Each of the five reasons below reflects one of three things: a peak weakness, a capitulation capitulation, or an increase in new purchasing power. Together, they could form one of the strongest Taurus cycle precursors I’ve ever seen.
Short-term selling pressure appears to be coming off
Short term carriers They sell at the fastest rates in months, and this usually happens near the bottom.
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Bitcoin Monger indicated a computerized increase in the number of coins sent to exchanges, while JA Marton indicated a similar increase in cryptocurrencies, where more than 60,000 bitcoins moved in loss within hours. This type of panic selling often represents a “cleaning” phase before the trend changes from a bear market atmosphere.
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The data on the chain confirms this. The short-term SOPR fell to 0.96 on November 15th, which corresponds to the same level since April 7th. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) indicates whether the coins spent on-chain are sold at a profit or a loss. When it drops below 1 and then stabilizes, it often indicates that weak holders have already given up.
Short holders are important because they are the group that reacts the fastest during corrections. They panic sell early, get their stop loss faster, and are often immersed in a weak position. This is why short-term selling pressure often peaks near the bottom of the market.
After the April reset, Bitcoin rose from $76,270 to $123,345 in just a few months, at a rate of nearly 62%. With the SOPR now back at 0.97, the recent decline suggests that selling pressure may be about to burn.
This raises the question: is new purchasing power accumulating elsewhere? Here comes the next indicator.
The power of stablecoins is growing again
If the short sellers haven’t cleared, the next question is simple: Is there enough new buying power to push prices up?
Currently, the stablecoin data says yes.
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The stablecoin supply-to-ratio (SSR) fell to 11.59, its lowest reading in more than a year. The SSR compares the market capitalization of Bitcoin to the total supply of stablecoins. When the SSR decreases, it means that stablecoins have more purchasing power compared to Bitcoin. Sellers refer to this as “dry powder”.
This level is even lower than the reading of 12.89 that appeared on April 8, the same period that Bitcoin reached $76,276 before rising for months. A lower SSR means that stablecoins can buy more Bitcoin per unit of supply, which usually appears near market lows.
A second confirmation comes from the RSI for the Soviet Socialist Republic, highlighted by analyst Marton. It is located near 26, a level that has repeatedly been in line with the lows of Bitcoin during previous bearish markets. A low RSI here means that the purchasing power of stablecoins is overestimated relative to the volume of Bitcoin – a rare parameter that often appears before a trend change.
When the collection Growing reserves of stablecoins A deeply compressed SSR report shows that the market has the necessary liquidity for a recovery in the cryptocurrency market.
A reset in altcoin earnings may be quietly strengthening the bull market case for cryptocurrencies
The short-term capitulation and the lower SSR ratio already show that the selling pressure is about to come out. The next layer comes from altcoins, where the reset is deeper.
The latest data from Glassnode shows that only about 5% of the altcoin supply is still generating profits, a typical level observed during the late capitulation phase. When most holders are in the water, the market usually has very little to sell.
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This is similar to the Bitcoin wipeout itself, where 95% of all coins purchased in the last 155 days are now under water – a number higher than the Covid and FTX collapses.
This combination is important because altcoins often settle before Bitcoin when payout ratios collapse so abruptly. in spite Bitcoin dominance is still close to 60%However, the gap between Bitcoin’s declining profits and the almost zero profit level of altcoins indicates that altcoins may be closer to forming a base.
If a cryptocurrency bull market begins a deep reset, altcoins are often the first to respond simply because they no longer have operating pressure. This increases the possibility that A phase led by altcoins begins At first.
Sentiment descends into intense fear: how exactly do bull markets begin?
After watching altcoin losses and underwater Bitcoin supply, the next piece that unites the history of the crypto bull market is emotion. The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index fell to 10 on November 15, marking its lowest reading since February 27, when Bitcoin traded near $84,718. This previous reading came just a few weeks before Bitcoin bottomed out in April and began the same rally we noted earlier – going from $76,276 on April 8 to $123,345 by August 13, an increase of 62%.
This new drop to 10 is important because intense fear usually appears after most of the selling has been completed. Even during the April rebound, the index briefly reached 18 and did not return to 10. Falling to this range again indicates that the market has already gone through an emotional wave.
Industry leaders like Thomas Chen, CEO of Function, also describe this stage as draining and emotionally draining:
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“The behavior of the allocator turned sharply towards sales with outflows of more than $ 2.8 billion… They almost feel back to the question: Do I still want to keep Bitcoin in this atmosphere? With the fear-greed index at the maximum, this looks like a collapse of Luna in 2022,” he said.
This recovery comes immediately after the capitulation of altcoins and record low stablecoin ratios, reinforcing the broader argument that the foundation for the next cryptocurrency market can be formed.
The New Death Show Has Just Ended – And Could Bitcoin React?
The latest sign that points to a potential bull market for cryptocurrencies is the new metonymy that formed on November 15th. A death cross occurs when the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average. Moving averages show the average closing price over a period, so this crossover often highlights trend exhaustion rather than the start of a long breakout.
Bitcoin fell by about 17% during the entire “internal transit” phase, leading up to the final signal. The move is almost identical to the 16% drop seen during the dead period in April. This structure fully materialized in April, announced the weak moment, and then began the demonstration of April-August.
This time, something similar is happening below the surface. The price makes a higher low during these two phases of the market, but the RSI indicator makes a lower low. The RSI tracks momentum, and this kind of subtle bullish divergence often indicates that sellers are tired. It acts as if the final release of pressure before the uptrend begins first. This is in line with the peak yield theory mentioned earlier.
Fred Thiel, CEO of MARA Holdings, noted that the recent collapse reflects a decline driven by the whole, not just an event on the charts.
“Bitcoin’s fall below $90,000 reflects a perfect storm of macro winds and profits. Long-term holders sold more than 815,000 BTC in the past month, the most aggressive selling since 2024,” he added.
if Bitcoin continues to dominate above its recent lowsa death cross may be another reset rather than a crash.
This was the case earlier this year, and it is one of the reasons why traders believe that the foundation of a bull crypto market is quietly taking shape. However, if the price of Bitcoin does not react quickly to this recently formed cross, the emergence of a bull market may have to wait longer.
