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The first week of December 2025 will see critical US economic events affecting monetary policy expectations and the direction of Bitcoin, as traders prepare for potential action by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
Bitcoin investors face a crucial week with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaking on December 1, which coincides with the end of the official policy of quantitative easing (QT). With the probability of a December rate cut now at 86%, significant volatility is expected in risk assets.
Powell’s speech and the end of quantitative easing
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak to the markets on Monday, December 1 at 8:00 PM EST. This occasion is not only a much-awaited speech from him, but also a Official end of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing programa policy change announced by the Federal Open Market Committee in October.
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The Fed’s October 29 statement said: “The Committee decided to end reductions in combined securities on December 1.” Read on Quote from the statement.
This move reflects the availability of ample reserves in the banking system. Powell’s comments come amid speculation about potential changes in the leadership of the Federal Reserve, adding another layer of uncertainty to the market.
Because Powell’s speech comes before the Fed’s communication before its December policy meeting, it is likely to be of great importance.
Any hint about the future of prices can cause immediate market reactions. Quantitative tightening ends It marks a shift toward a more accommodative monetary policy, which could increase dollar liquidity.
Adding to the uncertainty, reports indicate President Trump has already selected a replacement for PowellAlthough the official announcement has not yet been made.
That speculation may increase volatility as markets weigh the possibility of a new president who may push for faster cuts.
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Recruitment to the ADP
Automatic Data Processing Company(ADP), the largest payroll processor in the United States, is preparing to release ADP’s November Employment Change Report, which measures the change in the number of privately employed people in the United States, at 8:15 a.m. EST on Wednesday.
The previous November report indicated that only 42,000 jobs were added, according toMarket Watch Economic Calendar. The new data will provide key insights into the health of the labor market before the official government employment figures are released.
A large number of jobs can reduce the likelihood of a rate cut and put pressure on Bitcoin and other risky assets. In turn, weak job growth strengthens the case for Fed easing, which typically benefits crypto markets.
The famous AI bubble is expected to play a role in this week’s US jobs report, even as it crosses… Several industry experts expressed their sentiments.
Business statistics are crucial The Federal Reserve’s dual mission guides policy decisions.
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Initial unemployment claims
Initial jobless claims are due Thursday, December 4 at 8:30 am EST. As a weekly measure of layoffs, this report provides a real-time view of labor market conditions. Determine the number of US citizens who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time last week.
Increased claims may indicate economic weakness and support calls for easier monetary policy, while decreased claims indicate resistance and a lack of urgency to cut rates.
Historically, Bitcoin has been very sensitive to job releases because they shape the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and liquidity expectations.
Traders often place their positions ahead of these reports, leading to increased volatility in the spot markets andDerivatives markets.
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Inflation data for PCE
Friday, December 5 brings the Personal Consumer Expenditure (PCE) Price Index at 8:30 am EST, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.
This report reveals the progress towards the goal of 2% of the central bank. It will be released alongside personal income and expenditure data, to provide a comprehensive view of consumer health.
Investors focus on headline and core PCE numbers. A weaker reading could confirm a lower, strengthening inflation trend Expectations for interest rate cuts in December.
CME Fed Watch data shows that rate bettors are betting on an 87.6% chance of a rate cut at the December 10 meeting, versus a 12.4% chance of policymakers holding their ground.
On the contrary, persistent inflation could provoke caution from the Federal Reserve, which could disappoint the markets hoping for a strong easing.
Consumer sentiment is reported at 10:00 AM EST, with the previous value at 51.0 on the economic calendar. This data shows the opinions of households on the economy and spending. Declining sentiment may signal falling demand and support the need for broader monetary policy, which typically tightens. Bitcoin.
These four major economic releases in one week create a bullish environment for digital asset markets. Meaning the association of Bitcoin with Traditional risk assets General economic news is more likely to drive market direction than specific cryptocurrency events.
As we begin the first week of December, the interaction between employment data, inflation trends and the position of the Federal Reserve will determine the momentum. Bitcoin and its response to changing signals from monetary policy.
