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Gold prices saw a moderate short-term decline following a broader rally that pushed the metal to new records. At the same time, Bitcoin posted a weak performance during what was historically its strongest quarter, leading to incessant comparisons between the two assets.
Despite Bitcoin’s weakness, analysts are highlighting a series of macroeconomic, statistical and technical signals from the gold market that suggest BTC may be nearing a bottom and perhaps setting the stage for its next big move.
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The 2020 strategy returns with gold and silver leading Bitcoin
In broader macroeconomic terms, analysts suggest that gold and silver typically hit their highs before Bitcoin recovers. An analyst details this model through a post he shared on the X platform (formerly known as Twitter).
After the March 2020 crash, the Federal Reserve injected significant liquidity into the markets. Liquidity injections have previously targeted safe havens.
Gold has risen from around $1,450 to $2,075 since August 2020. Silver has risen from $12 to $29. During the same period, Bitcoin has been between $9,000 and $12,000 for five months, according to an analysis published by BullTheory.
Published mention BullTheory That this was also after a major liquidation event that occurred in March 2020 due to Covid.
When precious metals rose in August 2020, capital began to shift to risk assets. This move sent Bitcoin running from $12,000 to $64,800 by May 2021, representing a 5.5x% increase. In addition, the total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market multiplied eight times.
Currently, gold is at record levels near $4,550, and silver has reached around $80. At the same time, Bitcoin is trading largely sideways, showing a similar pattern to mid-2020. BullTheory added that,
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We also saw another major liquidation event recently on October 10, similar to what happened in March 2020, and again Bitcoin remained sluggish for several months afterward, BullTheory said.
Analysts argue that the Fed’s liquidity was the primary driver in 2020. In particular, in 2026, several new catalysts emerged.
These catalysts include renewed liquidity injections, lower interest rate expectations, the possibility of banks being exempt from SLR requirements, clearer crypto regulations, potential dividend controls under a Trump administration, the expansion of spot crypto ETFs, easier entry for large asset managers, and more pro-crypto leadership at the Fed.
Paul Theory said that last session, Bitcoin rose mainly due to liquidity. This time, liquidity combines with structure. The setup looks very similar, but with more fuel. Gold and silver moving first is not a negative for cryptocurrencies. Historically, it was an early sign. If this pattern repeats itself, Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency markets will not lead first. It moves after the minerals stop growing. For this reason, the current sideways movement in BTC is not the beginning of a bear market, but rather the calm before the storm.
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Statistical separation signals the rise of cryptocurrencies
Another major signal is emerging from Bitcoin’s correlation with gold and stocks. Analyst Plan B noted that Bitcoin deviated significantly from its historical correlation with gold and stocks. A similar decoupling occurred when Bitcoin was trading below $1,000, before rising more than tenfold.
Plan B wrote that this first happened when BTC was under $1,000, and resulted in a 10x spike.
The analyst warned that when the markets evolve, the relationship between assets can break. Therefore, the results of previous courses cannot be repeated in this course.
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Gold to Bitcoin Ratio: An indicator of the bottom of the market
From a technical angle, the BTC/GOLD ratio has also released a major signal. Gert van Lagen, the leading macro strategist, is this The RSI report is touching a major falling line For the fifth time in history.
The previous cycles, when this happened, coincided with the main lows of the bear market in 2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022, followed each time by Bitcoin regaining strength relative to gold and making lower lows. If the pattern is repeated, the current situation may indicate a similar turning point.
Therefore, if these historical, statistical and technical patterns remain constant, the current decoupling may represent a transitional phase rather than a permanent weakness, setting the stage for a A renewed rise for Bitcoin Once precious metals stop and risk appetite returns.
