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Bitcoin is in a sensitive stage after a long decline. However, several macroeconomic signals and data on the chain suggest that a strong reversal is possible. Many analysts also expect a medium-term recovery that could last several months.
Here are three main reasons why many analysts believe in this recovery scenario.
The relationship between Bitcoin and the ISM Manufacturing PMI
Earlier, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI recorded its second consecutive month of expansion. According to the latest report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the Purchasing Managers’ Index for February 2026 was 52.4%. Although the figure fell slightly from 52.6% in the previous month, it still beat market expectations of 51.8%.
This marks the second consecutive reading above 50. It ends a three-year period of contraction in the US industrial sector. This indicator indicates an increase To an environment in which investors expand their appetite for risk. This condition creates room for capital to flow into Bitcoin.
Analyst Joe Consorti highlighted the relationship between this indicator and the price of Bitcoin in previous sessions. He indicated that the current configuration sends a signal of a possible trend reversal.
Joe Consorti said that historically this coincided with the beginning of BTC bull markets (except 2022), Waiting.
The Bitcoin Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) indicator indicates a change in sentiment
Second, the CW analyst sees a “golden cross” to appear in the Bitcoin Inter-exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) indicator.
Cryptoquant, an on-chain data and analytics platform, explains: The IFP index measures Bitcoin flows between spot and derivatives exchanges.
These flow data reflect Market sentiment. When a large amount of Bitcoin moves to derivatives exchanges, the indicator indicates an upward phase. Traders transfer currencies to these exchanges to open buy positions in the derivatives market.
In contrast, when Bitcoin flows from derivatives platforms​​​​to spot trading platforms, the indicator signals the beginning of a bearish phase. This situation often occurs when traders close their long positions and large investors reduce their exposure to risk.
In the past, this indicator was preceded by strong recoveries between 2023 and 2025. Currently, after a year of correction, the golden cross is approaching. If this crossover is confirmed, it will signal the beginning of a new bull cycle for Bitcoin.
CW analyst stated that a golden cross is imminent in the Bitcoin Interplatform Flow Pulse (IFP) indicator. After a year of correction, the price is ready to rise again. Everyone, fasten your seat belts! According to his expression.
Five consecutive monthly red candles signal seller exhaustion
Having five consecutive red candles in the course of five months is extremely rare. Bitcoin closed February 2026 with its fifth consecutive monthly red candle. This is only the second time in history that this series has happened.
The first example occurred during 2018-2019, where Bitcoin recorded six consecutive red candles. After that period, Bitcoin painted five consecutive green candles. The price rose more than 300%increasing from about $3,400 to $14,000.
Although the historical sample is still small, a continuous series of red candles indicates that the selling pressure has come to an end. A strong reversal can occur when buying force returns.
Analyst Satoshi Flipper stated that five or six monthly red candles do not matter anymore because most of the decline is behind us and the whole upside is still ahead of us, As he said.
These signals have historically confirmed an uptrend that lasts for several months. A recent report by PinnCrypto reinforced the scenario that Bitcoin has entered a bottom phase. However, analysts indicated that there is room for further decline.
BeIN Crypto analysts expect that the fate of March will depend on whether the support level at $62,300 will hold or the resistance level at $79,000 will be breached first.
