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About $2.3 billion worth of options on Bitcoin and Ethereum are set to expire today, putting cryptocurrency markets at a critical turning point as traders prepare for a potential reset in volatility.
Positions are largely concentrated around key execution levels, which means that price action before and after expiration can be influenced more by mechanical hedging flows and less by fundamental factors.
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The expiration of $2.3 billion worth of cryptocurrency options puts Bitcoin and Ethereum at the crossroads of price volatility.
Bitcoin represents most of the notional value, with BTC options approaching expiration at around $1.94 billion.
before ending, Bitcoin is trading at $89,746below the maximum pain level of $92,000, which is the price at which the largest number of option contracts expire worthless.
Total open interest is 21,657 contracts, distributed between 11,944 calls and 9,713 put options, resulting in a put-to-call ratio of 0.81.
The skewness curves indicate a moderate, rather than steep, upward slope, leaving room for fluctuations in both directions.
Ethereum options make up the rest with a notional value of $347.7 million. ETH is trading at around $2,958which is well below the maximum pain level of $3,200.
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Open interest sees a much larger volume in absolute terms, with 117,513 open contracts, consisting of 63,796 calls and 53,717 put options. This results in a put-to-call ratio of 0.84. As with Bitcoin, the positions indicate cautious optimism, with tangible downside protection still in place.
It should be noted that the expiration of this week’s options is a little less The volume of about $ 3 billion that ended last week.
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Diarebit highlights a rally in execution prices as overall risk continues to raise volatility
Derribit analysts said that the aggregation of open slots near major hits is likely to increase price sensitivity in the short term.
Derpit’s team said the expiration positions are tightly clustered around key strikes, keeping the spot price sensitive to date. Geopolitics and trade policy uncertainty remain the macroeconomic backdrop, supporting hedging demand and making volatility reactive. They recommended monitoring pull strikes, hedging flows to sellers, and changing volatility prices after expiration, They wrote.
This dynamic reflects a broader environment in which general risk dominates the psyche of traders.
It causes tension Geopolitical Ongoing changes in trade policies, and uncertainty around global monetary conditions are forcing investors to rely more on hedging options instead of direct directional bets.
This contributed to keeping implied volatility (IV) high and engaged, even during periods when spot prices were relatively stable.
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As expiration approaches, so-called “pull strikes” cause prices to pull aggressively as sellers adjust their hedges to be delta-neutral.
If spot prices approach the maximum pain levels, hedging flows lead to a strengthened movement. Whereas a sharp deviation from the main shocks causes a rapid repositioning, which amplifies rather than suppresses volatility.
As the contracts expire, attention will shift to how volatility will pick up over the weekend. Large contract maturities sometimes release pent-up gamma exposure, which can cause stronger post-maturity movements as the market recalibrates.
As a result, Bitcoin and Ethereum traders may see renewed directional momentum. This could be a relief if selling pressure weakens, or a bearish move if macroeconomic concerns return to the fore.
The intensity of the positioning, with the macro risks that are not resolved, and the clear technical support levels suggest that today’s options may be mainly to set the pace for the next phase in the BTC and ETH markets.
